@article{Predicting:804,
      recid = {804},
      author = {Atta-Mensah, Joseph and Tkacz, Greg},
      title = {Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables:  A Probit Approach},
      publisher = {Bank of Canada},
      address = {1998},
      pages = {1 online resource (38 pages)},
      abstract = {This paper examines the ability of a number of financial  variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding  methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by  Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to  predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance.  Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on  Canadian long bonds and the 90-day commercial paper rate is  particularly useful in predicting Canadian recessions. This  result is consistent with those of Estrella and Mishkin  (1998).},
      url = {http://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/804},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-1998-5},
}