@article{Switching:676, recid = {676}, author = {van Norden, Simon}, title = {Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles}, publisher = {Bank of Canada}, address = {1993}, pages = {1 online resource (v, 57 pages)}, abstract = {This paper develops a new test for speculative bubbles which is applied to data for the exchange rate of the Japanese yen, the Deutsche mark and the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar from 1977 to 1991. The test assumes that bubbles display a particular kind of regime-switching behaviour, which is shown to imply coefficient restrictions on a simple switching-regression model of exchange rate innovations. Test results are sensitive to the specification of exchange rate fundamentals and other factors. An overshooting model of the Canadian dollar and a purchasing-power parity model of the Japanese yen give the most consistent evidence of bubbles.}, url = {http://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/676}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-1993-5}, }