@article{Exchange:674, recid = {674}, author = {Amano, Robert and van Norden, Simon}, title = {Terms of Trade and Real Exchange Rates: The Canadian Evidence}, publisher = {Bank of Canada}, address = {1993}, pages = {1 online resource (v, 38 pages)}, abstract = {This paper presents empirical evidence linking the Canada-U.S. real exchange rate with terms-of-trade variables. Using recently developed econometric methods for nonstationary data, we find that the real exchange rate is cointegrated with terms-of-trade variables, and that causality runs from the terms of trade to the exchange rate. We then construct a simple exchange rate equation that satisfies several specification tests and performs better than a random walk in post-sample forecasting experiments. The results suggest that much of the variation in the real exchange rate is attributable to movements in the terms of trade and that the influence of monetary factors is secondary.}, url = {http://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/674}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-1993-3}, }