@article{Macroeconomic:668, recid = {668}, author = {Cozier, Barry and Selody, Jack}, title = {Inflation and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Cross-Country Evidence}, publisher = {Bank of Canada}, address = {1992}, pages = {1 online resource (iii, 57 pages)}, abstract = {The paper examines the hypothesis that high and variable inflation damages long-run macroeconomic performance. Empirical studies of this hypothesis are scarce despite numerous theoretical arguments as to why inflation and inflation uncertainty hinder economic performance. The results — based on 25 years of data from 62 countries — suggest that significant net benefits derive from a monetary policy that is directed to maintaining a stable and predictable price level. This paper tests for costs of inflation within the context of a modified version of the neoclassical growth model with human capital, developed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil (A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, NBER, 1990). The neoclassical model is well-suited to testing the hypothesis that inflation is harmful to economic performance. The vast majority of the literature on the costs of inflation suggests that the distortions caused by inflation are fundamentally long lasting and have their largest effect on total-factor productivity, which is a primary determinant of income per capita. These distortions should show up clearly in the Solow model, since it was designed to explain the steady-state level of income per capita. The empirical work in the paper uses the Summers-Heston data base of macroeconomic variables standardized to facilitate international comparisons (Summers and Heston, "A New Set of International Comparisons of Real Product and Price Levels Estimates for 130 Countries, 1950-1985," Review of Income and Wealth, 1988). The results of the study indicate that the level of inflation and perhaps also its volatility have a negative long-run effect on income per capita, even after controlling for differences in savings rates, investment in human capital and population growth rates. The effect is particularly pronounced within countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The results are consistent with inflation having its largest distorting effect on total-factor productivity. The introduction of inflation into the model does not affect Mankiw, Romer and Weil's finding that countries converge to their steady-state level of income per capita at about the rate predicted by the augmented Solow model. This result is consistent with the view that inflation has its largest effect on the steady-state level of per capita income.}, url = {http://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/668}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-1992-6}, }