@article{Comparative:4247,
      recid = {4247},
      author = {Jenkins, W. Paul and Kenward, Lloyd R.},
      title = {The Comparative Ex Post Forecasting Properties of Several  Canadian Quarterly Econometric Models},
      publisher = {Bank of Canada},
      address = {1977},
      pages = {1 online resource (286 pages)},
      abstract = {In this study we compare the forecasting ability of the  three publicly available Canadian quarterly econometric  models: The AERIC Short-Term Quarterly Forecasting Model of  the Canadian Economy (AERIC) developed in The Conference  Board in Canada, the Quarterly Econometric Model of the  Canadian Economy (QFM) developed at the University of  Toronto, and the Research Department quarterly experimental  econometric model of the Canadian economy (RDX2) developed  in the Bank of Canada. The standards against which these  econometric models are measured are univariate Box-Jenkins  models and a monetarist reduced form model. Sixteen  variables of general interest to forecasters are examined  over various prediction intervals so as to ascertain the  forecast errors in the levels of the variables and their  percentage changes. We find that no one model predominates.  Although the three econometric models generally perform  well in comparison with the Box-Jenkins models, the  monetarist model consistently predicts nominal gross  national expenditure best. Among the three econometric  models there is considerable variation in the ability to  predict the variables over different time horizons.},
      url = {http://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/4247},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.34989/tr-7},
}