@article{Properties:4241,
      recid = {4241},
      author = {Rayfuse, Bruce},
      title = {The Leading Indicator Properties of Surveyed Consumer  Attitudes and Buying Intentions},
      publisher = {Bank of Canada},
      address = {1982},
      pages = {1 online resource (vi, 54 pages)},
      abstract = {The author attempts to discover whether the Conference  Board of Canada's Survey of Consumer Buying Intentions is a  useful leading indicator of consumer durable expenditure.  Two aspects of the Survey are considered separately, the  overall Index of Consumer Attitudes and the various buying  intentions questions. Both are tested using bivariate  reduced form Granger techniques and structural models of  consumer behaviour. The results of the tests indicate that  movements in the Index of Consumer Attitudes do tend to  lead movements in durables expenditure by one quarter. This  conclusion holds whether one uses the actual published  Index, a variant including neutral responses, or a filtered  version of the Index, where the filtered version is  calculated as in a number of American studies. The  relationship is especially significant for expenditures on  automobiles and parts. There is little indication, however,  that buying intentions as recorded in the Survey are useful  leading indicators of subsequent consumer behaviour. Only  in the furniture and floor coverings category is there a  significant positive relationship between intentions and  expenditure, and it is contemporaneous. One reason is that,  while the Survey indicates what proportion of households  intend to purchase certain items, it does not measure  relative values of the intended purchases. Thus, a failure  to link buying intentions with future expenditure is not an  indictment of the accuracy or the validity of the Survey in  its own terms.},
      url = {http://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/4241},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.34989/tr-30},
}